Six countries invited to join BRICS

As a significant development at the end of three-day summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, it was announced that BRICS has invited six countries – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – to join the group as full members from the 1st of January next year. President of China Xi Jinping described the expansion of the membership as “historic.” More than 40 countries had been interested in joining BRICS and 23 formally applied to join the group. The current BRICS countries represent a quarter of the global economy and 40 percent of the world’s population.

Read the full story on Al Jazeera:

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/8/24/saudi-arabia-iran-to-join-brics-as-grouping-admits-six-new-members

China and Saudi Arabia in talks to cross-list stock markets

As a further sign of the growing cooperation between China and countries in the Middle East, top stock-market operators in China and Saudi Arabia are reportedly negotiating about the possibility to offer a cross-listing of their respective Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). That would allow investors in Saudi Arabia and China to trade stocks or bonds on their countries’ stock exchanges.

Read the full story on Middle East Eye:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/china-and-saudi-arabia-talks-over-stock-market-cross-listing-report

India and UAE will use local currencies in bilateral trade

One of the interesting developments in world politics has been the de-dollarization of international trade, increasing willingness to use local or other currencies instead of US dollar. One recent example of this has been the trade agreement between India and the United Arab Emirates (1). This agreement is interesting, because India and UAE are close allies of USA – for example, India and UAE are part of the India-Israel-US-UAE Alliance (I2-U2), economic group that was established in October 2021 (2).

References:

1) “India, UAE agree to use local currencies in bilateral trade” Middle East Monitor 16.7.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230716-india-uae-agree-to-use-local-currencies-in-bilateral-trade/

2) “The India-Israel-US-UAE Alliance (I2-U2): Background and Objectives” Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, Doha Institute 19.7.2022

https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/PoliticalStudies/Pages/the-emergent-alliance-between-the-us-israel-india-and-the-uae-i2-u2-background-and-objectives.aspx

More interesting news about BRICS

While various far-right movements and parties seem to become stronger in the Western world, there have been more interesting and positive developments in the rest of the world. Foreign ministers of the five BRICS countries and from 12 developing countries – “friends of BRICS” – met in South Africa last week. 19 countries are interested in joining the bloc. The BRICS foreign ministers pledged to build up the New Development Bank. The aim of the bank is to finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects in the developing and member countries. (1, 2, 3)

References:

1) “BRICS meet with ‘friends’ seeking closer ties amid push to expand bloc” Middle East Monitor 2.6.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230602-brics-meet-with-friends-seeking-closer-ties-amid-push-to-expand-bloc/

2) “As 19 countries seek to join BRICS, is the world experiencing a change in the balance of power?” Middle East Monitor 22.5.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230522-as-19-countries-seek-to-join-brics-is-the-world-experiencing-a-change-in-the-balance-of-power/

3) “BRICS foreign ministers pledge to build up New Development Bank” Middle East Monitor 2.6.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230602-brics-foreign-ministers-pledge-to-build-up-new-development-bank/

Developing cooperation in BRICS

Political expert Marco Carnelos wrote in January that year 2022 will probably be seen as “a watershed, when the world began its tectonic shift from a post-Cold War unipolar order to a still undefined and uncertain multipolar one.” The conflict in Ukraine has led to a situation where “Global West and Global Rest” are “on two different tracks regarding the conflict and other global issues” and the “Western-centric perceptions of world events have been utterly dismissed for the first time.” Carnelos referred to a foreign minister from one of the BRICS countries who said that “the problems of Europe and the US are no longer the problems of the whole world.” Carnelos also pointed out that BRICS – economic bloc consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has become increasingly popular. Many traditional allies or partners of the USA, for example Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are keen to join BRICS. (1) BRICS will decide this year whether it will admit new members to the bloc (2).

The current BRICS countries have also been talking about their developing cooperation. A little while ago, a delegation from the South Africa’s ruling party ANC visited United Russia Party in order to discuss “recalibration of the global order” (3). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in January that BRICS countries will discuss creating a common currency at the group’s summit in South Africa in August (4). During his recent visit to China, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized the dominance of US dollar in world trade and suggested that developing nations should use alternative currency (5). Brazil and China agreed to boost their economic and other cooperation. The relations between Brazil and China were strained when Brazilian far-right president Bolsonaro was in power (6). Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is also visiting Brazil – this and President Lula da Silva’s visit to China are part of diplomatic reset and Lula’s determination to recover Brazil’s international reputation after Bolsonaro’s disastrous presidential term. Lula also wants to take actively part in international politics and he would like Brazil to be involved in peace brokering in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. (7)

References:

1) “US-China: How 2022 saw the old world order start to crumble” Middle East Eye 19.1.2023

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/us-china-old-world-order-crumble-how

2) “BRICS discussing decision on Saudi Arabia, Iran memberships this year” Middle East Monitor 16.2.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230216-brics-discussing-decision-on-saudi-arabia-iran-memberships-this-year/

3) “S.Africa party officials in Russia for talks on new ‘global order'” A News 2.4.2023

https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2023/04/02/safrica-party-officials-in-russia-for-talks-on-new-global-order

4) “Russian FM says BRICS group to consider common currency” Anadolu Agency 25.1.2023

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/russian-fm-says-brics-group-to-consider-common-currency/2797085#

5) “Lula Advocates From China For De-dollarization In World Trade” TeleSUR 13.4.2023

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Lula-Advocates-From-China-For-De-dollarization-In-World-Trade-20230413-0020.html

6) “Lula and Xi pledge to boost ties in Beijing meeting” Al Jazeera 14.4.2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/14/lula-and-xi-pledge-to-boost-ties-in-beijing-meeting

7) “Lavrov’s Brazil visit highlights Lula’s neutral foreign policy despite US dismay” The Guardian 17.4.2023

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/17/brazil-lula-neutral-foreign-policy-lavrov-visit

Significant deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia

China has helped Iran and Saudi Arabia resume diplomatic ties after seven years. Andrew Parasiliti wrote about the significance of this deal on Al-Monitor (1):

“It’s hard to overstate the impact of resumed diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia — and that it was China that made it happen.

China has until now had a business- and energy-first approach to the Middle East, preferring to abstain from the diplomatic and security charge held, mostly unchallenged, by the United States.

Not anymore.

A Saudi-Iran rapprochement is one for the diplomatic A team. It’s a major step to de-escalate the most critical fault line between the Gulf’s largest and most powerful countries.”

Marwan Bishara wrote about the deal on Al Jazeera (2):

“…I believe it is in everybody’s best interest if the protagonists try a hands-off approach to regional affairs, especially as their regional overreach allowed foreign powers to exploit and aggravate their conflict.

Indeed, Riyadh and Tehran must now take a common, firm stand on foreign interference, especially Western support for Israel’s colonialism and apartheid – predictably the only country to openly oppose the new Gulf détente, which it is, no doubt, determined to sabotage.

They must also reject all attempts by global powers to intervene directly or through proxies in the Middle East. That includes China.

Beijing, which mediated between Riyadh and Tehran and hosted the final celebratory handshake, has emerged as the biggest winner of the new deal. It will gain greater credibility and prestige as a responsible global player, having helped resolve a complicated conflict in a tough region considered part of the US area of influence.”

Here are some other positive reactions to this deal (3):

UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric:

“Good neighbourly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia are essential for the stability of the Gulf region.

The Secretary-General reiterates his readiness to use his good offices to further advance regional dialogue to ensure durable peace and security in the Gulf region.”

Badr Albusaidi, Foreign Minister of Oman:

“This is a win-win for everyone and will benefit regional and global security. We hope, in the longer term, there’s also potential for increasing economic benefits for all.”

Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to United Arab Emirates President:

“We welcome the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resume diplomatic relations, and we hail the Chinese role in this regard.

The UAE believes in the importance of positive communication and dialogue among the countries of the region towards consolidating the concepts of good neighbourliness and starting from a common ground to build a more stable future for all.”

In the USA, the reactions have been mixed (3, 4, 5):

White House National Security Council spokesperson, John Kirby:

“Generally speaking, we welcome any efforts to help end the war in Yemen and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region. De-escalation and diplomacy together with deterrence are key pillars of the policy President Biden outlined during his visit to the region last year.

The Saudis did keep us informed about these talks that they were having, just as we keep them informed on our engagements, but we weren’t directly involved.”

Former national security adviser John Bolton:

“We’re sitting still, and the Chinese, the Russians, Iran, North Korea, and several others, are moving to shore up their relations and threaten us in a lot of different places.”

“It’s an indication that the Saudis and others are trying to hedge their bets with China and Russia, because they don’t think the United States has the resolve and the fortitude necessary to do what they need to do to protect the world against Iran and its intentions.“

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Political Scientist at Rice University’s Baker Institute in the United States:

“Further regional instability is not in Saudi or Iranian interest at the moment.”

“And for the Chinese to have addressed this at a time when the US stance toward Iran is becoming more hawkish sends a powerful signal in itself.”

Ahmed Aboudouh, a nonresident fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council:

“For Saudi Arabia and Iran, China’s ostensible commitment to the ‘non-interference’ principle and its ‘non-alignment’ regional policy attached great credibility to its position as a broker. To be clear, both countries seem united in their grievances towards the Biden administration, albeit at different levels. Nonetheless, despite Iraq’s hosting the talks for the most part, China’s desire to take the lead has met Riyadh and Tehran’s willingness to hand it a diplomatic win – a stark indication of China’s growing influence over the two biggest powers in the Gulf.

It remains to be seen whether the Chinese mediation will hold in the future and, indeed, cover other regional conflicts. Nevertheless, China has just left the United States with a bleeding nose in the Gulf.”

In Israel, the blame game started quickly. A senior official who was part of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s entourage during his visit to Italy blamed the weakness of previous Israeli government and Biden administration for the situation. He said, “There was a feeling of American and Israeli weakness, so Saudi Arabia turned to other channels.” The official falsely claimed that the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran began during previous Israeli government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, even though the talks actually started already during Netanyahu’s previous government. Bennett and Lapid blamed Netanyahu for the deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They argued that it was “the result of diplomatic neglect, general weakness and internal conflict in the country since the current government was established on December 29”. (6)

References:

1) “China leaps into Saudi-Iran diplomacy as nuclear talks move” Al-Monitor 10.3.2023

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/china-leaps-saudi-iran-diplomacy-nuclear-talks-move

2) “The Saudi-Iran détente and its regional implications” Al Jazeera 12.3.2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/3/12/the-saudi-iran-detente-and-its-regional

3) “Reaction to Iran and Saudi Arabia resuming ties – Quotes” Middle East Monitor 10.3.2023

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230310-reaction-to-iran-and-saudi-arabia-resuming-ties-quotes/

4) “Bolton warns US against ‘sitting still’ as China and Russia grow closer” The Hill 12.3.2023

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3895810-bolton-warns-us-against-sitting-still-as-china-and-russia-grow-closer/

5) “Experts react: Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with help from China. Here’s what that means for the Middle East and the world” Atlantic Council 10.3.2023

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-iran-and-saudi-arabia-just-agreed-to-restore-relations-with-help-from-china-heres-what-that-means-for-the-middle-east-and-the-world/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGKa76tmpn6g7mcQ4U3Fbq6DzuwB19gwPTALG-1bnEnafrjecLJfdR3M-fR-pxCg0uCgH2EAPq8GJOP206NEl05KaF4QqpaZd6rLPA_aNEBUdo#Panikoff

6) “Top official blames weakness of Biden, Bennett-Lapid government for Saudi-Iran deal” The Times of Israel 10.3.2023

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-official-blames-weakness-of-biden-bennett-lapid-for-saudi-iran-deal/

World’s reaction to the Russia-Ukraine war

World’s reaction to the war between Russia and Ukraine has revealed some interesting aspects that can be seen as signs of the new emerging world order. Al Jazeera published excellent and very informative article about the way different countries have voted in the UN regarding the war, which countries have sent aid or arms to Ukraine and which countries have imposed sanctions on Russia. (1)

Democracy Index 2022 published by the Economist Intelligence Unit EIU concentrates heavily on the Russia-Ukraine war. According to the report, about two thirds of the world’s population live in countries that are neutral or Russia-leaning regarding the war in Ukraine. The report states, “Russia’s war of aggression has united the US, Europe and its close allies behind Ukraine, but many developing countries do not see things the same way. The countries of the global south see this as the West’s war and not necessarily their concern. Their reluctance to line up behind Western countries reflects, variously, frustration with the established international order and an emphasis on first-world issues; resentment of perceived Western hypocrisy in light of past Western intervention in their affairs; and dependency on Russian minerals and other resources.” (2)

Study by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank surveyed opinions in 15 countries – in nine EU member states and in Britain, USA, Russia, China, India and Türkiye. The study “revealed sharp geographical differences in attitudes to the war, democracy and the global balance of power, suggesting Russia’s aggression may be a historic turning point marking the emergence of a ‘post-western’ world order.” Mark Leonard, the thinktank’s director and a co-author of the report, stated, “The paradox of the Ukraine war is that the west is both more united, and less influential in the world, than ever before.” According to professor Timothy Garton Ash, the survey showed that “the war had given the transatlantic west unity and purpose” but it had “utterly failed to persuade major powers of the rest, such as China, India and Turkey.” (3)

The rest of the world has also seen how the West has, perhaps unwittingly, shown its bias regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and Ukrainian refugees. Last year, when the war started, comments made in Western media and by some prominent persons were quite startling. Here are some examples (4):

NBC News correspondent Kelly Cobiella: “Just to put it bluntly, These are not refugees from Syria, these are refugees from neighbouring Ukraine… These are Christian, they’re white, they’re very similar.”

Daniel Hannan on The Telegraph: “They seem so like us. That is what makes it so shocking. War is no longer something visited upon impoverished and remote populations. It can happen to anyone.”

English presenter Peter Dobbie on Al Jazeera: (Ukrainians fleeing the war are) “prosperous, middle class people” (who) “are not obviously refugees trying to get away from areas in the Middle East that are still in a big state of war. These are not people trying to get away from areas in North Africa, they look like any European family that you would live next door to.”

Ukraine’s former deputy general prosecutor David Sakvarelidze on BBC News: “It’s very emotional for me because I see European people with blonde hair and blue eyes being killed every day with Putin’s missiles and his helicopters and his rockets.”

Bulgaria’s president Rumen Radev: “These are not the refugees we are used to. These people are Europeans… These people are intelligent, they are educated people… This is not the refugee wave we have been used to, people we were not sure about their identity, people with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists… In other words, there is not a single European country now which is afraid of the current wave of refugees.”

References:

1) “Where does your country stand on the Russia-Ukraine war?” Al Jazeera 16.2.2023

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/16/mapping-where-every-country-stands-on-the-russia-ukraine-war

2) Democracy Index 2022 Economist Intelligence Unit EIU February 2023

https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2022/?utm_source=economist&utm_medium=daily_chart&utm_campaign=democracy-index-2022

3) “War in Ukraine defining new world order, says thinktank” The Guardian 22.2.2023

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/21/war-in-ukraine-defining-new-world-order-says-thinktank

4) “Europe’s contrasting responses to Ukraine refugee crisis prompt criticism” Independent 28.2.2022

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-refugees-response-europe-racist-b2024840.html